This article covers the mechanics behind a Fair Value Price — useful if you want to know exactly how the number was reached, not just that a settlement happened.
Step 1 — Set the Reference Time
The Reference Time is the moment the market's value gets frozen. It's the earliest of:
the suspension, interruption, or termination of the contest,
any Novig-imposed trading halt connected to the event, or
the first public report of the event.
Novig may set an earlier Reference Time if the price clearly already reflected the news before it broke publicly (for example, if the market moved before the story was reported). If an exact time can't be pinned down, Novig may use an approximate time.
Step 2 — Define the Calculation Window
The Calculation Window is the 30 minutes ending at the Reference Time. If the contract was listed for less than 30 minutes total, the window runs from the contract's listing time to the Reference Time.
Step 3 — Calculate the composite price
Novig blends two inputs, time-weighted across the window:
Prices for the same outcome from independent, widely distributed commercial markets, with the embedded margin removed using a consistent documented methodology (normally at least two sources where available), and
The midpoint of Novig's own best bid and best offer.
These two components are combined using a weighting methodology that Novig applies consistently across all contracts.
Step 4 — Apply bounds and rounding
The Fair Value Price is never below $0.00 and never above the contract's Settlement Value. It's rounded to the nearest Minimum Tick; an exact midpoint rounds toward the composite price at the Reference Time.
What gets excluded from the calculation?
Before calculating the Fair Value Price, Novig can exclude unreliable inputs, including:
Trades or quotes on Novig that appear anomalous, erroneous, non-bona-fide, or manipulative (for example, a burst of activity between related accounts).
Any period where the Novig order book was one-sided, or where the spread was too wide or size too thin for quotes to be meaningful.
Any external source that was stale, suspended, or materially out of line with other sources during the window, without explanation.
What happens if a clean price isn't available? (Fallback ladder)
Novig applies these steps in order and uses the first one that produces a reliable price:
One input is missing → use whichever component(s) are still available.
Neither input is usable → find the most recent 30+ minute stretch within the prior 24 hours where the composite price can be reliably calculated.
Still nothing → use contemporaneous prices of related contracts on the same contest, listed on Novig.
Still nothing → no Fair Value Price is set. Customers get back the funds they had at risk in the market.
Important: Step 4 is the only outcome that works like a traditional refund. It's rare, and mainly happens on very thinly traded markets with no external pricing available.
Frequently asked questions
How did you calculate that number?
Novig takes the 30 minutes of trading right before the disrupting event was reported and blends two things: prices for the same outcome from independent commercial markets with their margin removed, and the midpoint of Novig's own order book — time-weighted across that window. The final price and a summary of the calculation are published on Novig's website.
The price had already dropped before the news broke — does that matter?
Yes. If the market clearly moved before the public report, Novig can set an earlier Reference Time so the window captures the price before the information leaked in.
What if there was no price at all available?
In that rare case, the contract resolves without a Fair Value Price, and everyone gets back the funds they had at risk in the market. This typically only happens on very thinly traded markets.